FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Swansea City 2–0 WatfordMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Swansea City at 42%, draw at 28%, Watford at 30%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Swansea City.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Watford win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.14
Total 2.55
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost