What we expect
In plain English
Vancouver Whitecaps are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win St. Louis CITY SC vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
Bawler's model rates this match: Vancouver Whitecaps are favoured (45% win probability vs 31% for St. Louis CITY SC, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for St. Louis CITY SC vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is St. Louis CITY SC 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps (10.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.20.
How does Bawler predict St. Louis CITY SC vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives St. Louis CITY SC 31%, the draw 24% and Vancouver Whitecaps 45%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in St. Louis CITY SC vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.43 and away expected goals 1.77.
Over or under 2.5 goals in St. Louis CITY SC vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.20. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).