FT · USA: MLS · Wednesday, 07 October 2026
Chicago Fire FC 3–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 07 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Vancouver Whitecaps or draw at 70%. Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 30%, the draw at 24% and Vancouver Whitecaps at 45%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chicago Fire FC win
30%
Result
Draw
24%
Vancouver Whitecaps win
45%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.8
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.9 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.