SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg prediction — Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 14:30 UK

Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 14:30 UK
SC Paderborn 07 32Draw 26SC Freiburg 42
The call
42%
SC Freiburg to win
2.9
Goals expected
13d 13hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

SC Paderborn 07 or draw58%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
BTTS58%
SC Paderborn 07 win to nil16%
SC Freiburg or draw68%
Under 3.5 goals68%
Correct score 1–112%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.2 / match

Head to head

Nov 2023Freiburg 1–3 Paderborn
Jan 2020Freiburg 0–2 Paderborn
Aug 2019Paderborn 1–3 Freiburg
Apr 2016Paderborn 1–2 Freiburg
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Common questions

Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?

Bawler's model rates this match: SC Freiburg are favoured (42% win probability vs 32% for SC Paderborn 07, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is SC Paderborn 07 1-1 SC Freiburg (12.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.87.

How does Bawler predict SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives SC Paderborn 07 32%, the draw 26% and SC Freiburg 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?

BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.32 and away expected goals 1.55.

Over or under 2.5 goals in SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.87. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Bundesliga table →
SC Paderborn 07
Before this
29 AugAMainz14:30
All fixtures & results →SC Paderborn 07 form →SC Freiburg form →