FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 SC FreiburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Eintracht Frankfurt at 36%, draw at 26%, SC Freiburg at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was SC Freiburg to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Frankfurt win
36%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Freiburg win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.49 – 1.53
Total 3.02
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as Frankfurt's Marmoush (28% of team xG) and Freiburg's Grifo (22% of team xG) anchor nearly identical attacking output—1.49 xG versus 1.44—in a fixture the model rates as evenly balanced."