FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
SC Paderborn 07 3–1 TSG HoffenheimMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had SC Paderborn 07 at 36%, draw at 25%, TSG Hoffenheim at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-1. The model's headline call was TSG Hoffenheim to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
07 win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Hoffenheim win
39%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.59
Total 3.14
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Hoffenheim's 0.35 expected-goals advantage and 45% win probability make Over 1.5 Goals the model's high-confidence call at 82%, as both sides are positioned to generate consistent attacking chances."