FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 10 October 2026

SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB StuttgartMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026

SC Paderborn 07
0–2
VfB Stuttgart win
VfB Stuttgart

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was VfB Stuttgart or draw at 71%. Bawler had SC Paderborn 07 at 29%, the draw at 25% and VfB Stuttgart at 46%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

SC Paderborn 07 win
29%
Draw
25%
VfB Stuttgart win
46%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.7
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 2.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
VfB Stuttgart or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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