FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07Match recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Borussia Dortmund at 72%, draw at 17%, SC Paderborn 07 at 11%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Borussia Dortmund.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Dortmund win
72%
Actual ✓
Draw
17%
07 win
11%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.51 – 0.89
Total 3.40
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Borussia Dortmund's home win is the model's 72% call, built on a 1.61 expected-goals advantage and Guirassy's 30% share of attacking threat against a side managing just 0.89 xG."