FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 11 October 2026
SC Freiburg 2–1 Schalke 04Match recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SC Freiburg to win at 62%. Bawler had SC Freiburg at 62%, the draw at 22% and Schalke 04 at 16%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Freiburg win
62%
Result
Draw
22%
Schalke 04 win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.9
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
SC Freiburg to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.