FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Sunday, 30 August 2026
SC Freiburg 4–1 Werder BremenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had SC Freiburg at 55%, draw at 24%, Werder Bremen at 21%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward SC Freiburg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Freiburg win
55%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Bremen win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.84 – 1.05
Total 2.89
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✓ Won