FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
SC Freiburg 4–1 MotherwellMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SC Freiburg to win at 69%. Bawler had SC Freiburg at 69%, the draw at 20% and Motherwell at 12%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Freiburg win
69%
Result
Draw
20%
Motherwell win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.8
Total 3.0
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.1 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
SC Freiburg to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Freiburg's home win prediction (69%) rests on a commanding 1.40 xG advantage, with Grifo's wing creation critical to converting that dominance into goals."