FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
SC Freiburg 4–1 MotherwellMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had SC Freiburg at 69%, draw at 20%, Motherwell at 12%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward SC Freiburg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Freiburg win
69%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
Motherwell win
12%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.21 – 0.80
Total 3.01
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Freiburg's home win prediction (69%) rests on a commanding 1.40 xG advantage, with Grifo's wing creation critical to converting that dominance into goals."