FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC FreiburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had SC Paderborn 07 at 31%, draw at 25%, SC Freiburg at 43%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward SC Freiburg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
07 win
31%
Draw
25%
Freiburg win
43%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.37 – 1.64
Total 3.01
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Freiburg's pursuit of European qualification (8th, 6 games left) gives them attacking intent that, combined with their 0.32 xG edge and Vincenzo Grifo's creative threat on the wing, makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 81% forecast."