FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Motherwell 1–3 SC FreiburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Motherwell at 22%, draw at 26%, SC Freiburg at 52%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward SC Freiburg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Motherwell win
22%
Draw
26%
Freiburg win
52%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.00 – 1.68
Total 2.67
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won