Mainz 0–0 SC Paderborn 07Match recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026

0–0

Draw

SC Paderborn 07

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Mainz at 61%, draw at 21%, SC Paderborn 07 at 18%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Mainz to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Mainz win

61%

Draw

21%

Actual ✓

07 win

18%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

2.17 – 1.11

Total 3.28

Actual

0 – 0

Total 0 (-3.3 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 3.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Home Win

Pre-match: 61%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Under 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 36%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"Mainz's 1.06 expected-goals advantage at home translates to a 61% win probability, making a home victory the model's high-confidence call despite Paderborn's threat."

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