FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
SC Freiburg 5–0 Borussia MönchengladbachMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had SC Freiburg at 52%, draw at 25%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 23%. The match ended 5-0 — confirming the model's lean toward SC Freiburg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Freiburg win
52%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Mönchengladbach win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.77 – 1.09
Total 2.86
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Freiburg's 0.67 expected-goal advantage and Grifo's creative threat make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 78% call, with both sides generating enough attacking quality to breach defences."