San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC prediction — MLS · Sun 23 Aug · 03:30 UK

MLS · Sun 23 Aug · 03:30 UK
San Jose Earthquakes 49Draw 23Minnesota United FC 28
The call
85%
Over 1.5 goals
3.4
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–5

How it finished

Minnesota United FC beat San Jose Earthquakes 5–1. Bawler's model favoured San Jose Earthquakes at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Minnesota United FC 28%. It forecast 3.4 goals; the match produced 6. San Jose Earthquakes had 11 shots (6 on target) to Minnesota United FC's 11 (7), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 2.0.

San Jose…Full-time statsMinnesota…
59%Possession41%
1.7Expected goals (xG)2.0
11Shots11
6Shots on target7
7Shots inside box10
2Big chances5
3Corners3
1Saves5
14Fouls15
0Offsides3
1Yellow cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultSan Jose Earthquakes 49%Minnesota United FC (28% called)
Total goals3.46
Both teams to score65%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 85%Landed
Second call1X 72%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
San Jose Earthquakes to score86%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Minnesota United FC to score76%
Over 2.5 goals65%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 5SAN 1 · D 0 · MIN 4
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Apr 2026San Jose Earthquakes 4–2 Minnesota United
Jul 2025Minnesota United 4–1 San Jose Earthquakes
Mar 2025San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Minnesota United
Sept 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Minnesota United
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?

Minnesota United FC beat San Jose Earthquakes 5–1. Bawler's model favoured San Jose Earthquakes at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Minnesota United FC 28%. It forecast 3.4 goals; the match produced 6. San Jose Earthquakes had 11 shots (6 on target) to Minnesota United FC's 11 (7), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 2.0.

What was the final score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?

San Jose Earthquakes 1–5 Minnesota United FC, played on 23 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with San Jose Earthquakes 49%, the draw 23% and Minnesota United FC 28%.

What were the stats in San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?

Full-time: Possession 59%–41%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–2.0, Shots 11–11, Shots on target 6–7, Shots inside box 7–10, Big chances 2–5, Corners 3–3, Saves 1–5, Fouls 14–15, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?

Yes — both San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC scored, finishing 1–5. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said San Jose Earthquakes 49%, it finished Minnesota United FC (28% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 85%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said 1X 72%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

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