FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
FC Cincinnati 4–2 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 39%, draw at 27%, San Jose Earthquakes at 34%. The match ended 4-2 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Cincinnati.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cincinnati win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Earthquakes win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 1.68
Total 3.48
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
BTTS No
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 83% because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat—Cincinnati's 1.81 xG and San Jose's 1.68 xG project a high-scoring script, with Evander's creative influence keeping the hosts sharp."