FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 1–3 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 45%, draw at 29%, St. Louis CITY SC at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Earthquakes win
45%
Draw
29%
SC win
26%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 21%
✓ Won