FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
Minnesota United FC 1–1 San Diego FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 51%, draw at 27%, San Diego FC at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Minnesota United FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
51%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
FC win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.91 – 1.19
Total 3.10
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Minnesota's 0.72 xG edge and 78% Over 1.5 Goals probability signal a mismatch in attacking threat that should deliver goals."