FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Minnesota United FC 1–2 FC DallasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 43%, draw at 26%, FC Dallas at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Minnesota United FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
43%
Draw
26%
Dallas win
31%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.29
Total 2.86
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 78%, underpinned by Minnesota's 1.58 xG advantage and a narrow overall xG gap of 0.29 that suggests both sides will create meaningful chances."