USA: MLSSaturday 29 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Red Bull New York vPhiladelphia Union

Most likely scoreline
1–1
9% of the time · 3.48 goals expected
Red Bull New York 39%Draw 27%Philadelphia Union 34%
How we get there
Red Bull New YorkstepPhiladelphia Union
1.80Base xG · rolling 26-match1.67
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.80Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.67

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

New York Red Bulls average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Philadelphia Union average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
5
4
2
1
1
6
9
8
4
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Red Bull New York fixtures & form →Philadelphia Union fixtures & form →

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 22 July 2026, New York Red Bulls have won 0, Philadelphia Union have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
22 July 2026Philadelphia Union 3–1 New York Red BullsUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: New York Red Bulls 39% · draw 27% · Philadelphia Union 34%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

New York Red Bulls predictions & form →Philadelphia Union predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.