FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Red Bull New York 0–1 Nashville SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Red Bull New York at 33%, draw at 25%, Nashville SC at 42%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Nashville SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
York win
33%
Draw
25%
SC win
42%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.43 – 1.64
Total 3.07
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost