Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 22 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Red Bull New York vs Chicago Fire FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
36.2% home27.2% draw36.7% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Red Bull New YorkstepChicago Fire FC
1.74Base xG · rolling 26-match1.75
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.74Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.75

New York Red Bulls average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Chicago Fire average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
5
5
3
1
1
5
9
8
5
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 9 May 2026, New York Red Bulls have won 1, Chicago Fire have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
9 May 2026Chicago Fire 13 New York Red BullsUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: New York Red Bulls 36% · draw 27% · Chicago Fire 37%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.