FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Chicago Fire FC 2–1 Portland TimbersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 53%, draw at 26%, Portland Timbers at 21%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Chicago Fire FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
53%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Timbers win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.01 – 1.22
Total 3.23
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
BTTS No
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Chicago's 0.80 expected-goals advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 78%-confidence call, with the Fire generating nearly twice Portland's attacking threat."