FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Chicago Fire FC 2–1 Portland TimbersMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Chicago Fire FC or draw at 79%. Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 53%, the draw at 26% and Portland Timbers at 21%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chicago Fire FC win
53%
Result
Draw
26%
Portland Timbers win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Portland Timbers or draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Chicago's 0.80 expected-goals advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 78%-confidence call, with the Fire generating nearly twice Portland's attacking threat."