FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
Chicago Fire FC 2–1 Charlotte FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 49%, draw at 28%, Charlotte FC at 24%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Chicago Fire FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
FC win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.88 – 1.27
Total 3.14
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% probability, backed by Chicago's 0.61 expected-goal advantage and a combined 3.14 xG total that strongly favors an open, multi-goal contest."