FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
Red Bull New York 3–2 Orlando City SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Red Bull New York at 50%, draw at 25%, Orlando City SC at 25%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Red Bull New York.
> Pre-match probability vs result
York win
50%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
SC win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.18 – 1.52
Total 3.69
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 85% because Red Bull's 2.18 xG dominates Orlando's 1.52 in a fixture built for multiple tallies."