How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Bawler's model rates this match: Real Betis are favoured (54% win probability vs 19% for Getafe, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Real Betis 1-0 Getafe (14.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.36.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Real Betis 54%, the draw 27% and Getafe 19%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: No (56% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.55 and away expected goals 0.80.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.36. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).