FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Real Betis 5–2 OsasunaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Betis or draw at 78%. Bawler had Real Betis at 53%, the draw at 25% and Osasuna at 22%. The match finished 5–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Betis win
53%
Result
Draw
25%
Osasuna win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+4.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 4.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Real Betis or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.