FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
CSU Craiova 1–1 GetafeMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Getafe or draw at 68%. Bawler had CSU Craiova at 32%, the draw at 31% and Getafe at 38%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
CSU Craiova win
32%
Draw
31%
Result
Getafe win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.2
Total 2.2
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Getafe or draw
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 19%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.