FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Real Betis 3–2 FC PortoMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Betis or draw at 66%. Bawler had Real Betis at 39%, the draw at 27% and FC Porto at 34%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Betis win
39%
Result
Draw
27%
FC Porto win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.