How it finished
AS Monaco beat Paris Saint-Germain 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Paris Saint-Germain at 67% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave AS Monaco 14%. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 3. Paris Saint-Germain had 23 shots (10 on target) to AS Monaco's 4 (2), with 68% of the ball against 32%. On expected goals it was 2.2 to 0.5, so Paris Saint-Germain created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Monaco?
AS Monaco beat Paris Saint-Germain 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Paris Saint-Germain at 67% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave AS Monaco 14%. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 3. Paris Saint-Germain had 23 shots (10 on target) to AS Monaco's 4 (2), with 68% of the ball against 32%. On expected goals it was 2.2 to 0.5, so Paris Saint-Germain created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Monaco?
Paris Saint-Germain 1–2 AS Monaco, played on 04 Sept 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Paris Saint-Germain 67%, the draw 19% and AS Monaco 14%.
What were the stats in Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Monaco?
Full-time: Possession 68%–32%, Expected goals (xG) 2.2–0.5, Shots 23–4, Shots on target 10–2, Shots inside box 8–2, Big chances 2–1, Corners 6–0, Saves 0–9, Fouls 9–11, Offsides 5–2, Yellow cards 1–1.
Did both teams score in Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Monaco?
Yes — both Paris Saint-Germain and AS Monaco scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Monaco right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Paris Saint-Germain to win 67%, it finished AS Monaco won (14% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes.