FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Brest 0–1 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Brest at 19%, draw at 23%, Paris Saint-Germain at 58%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Paris Saint-Germain.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brest win
19%
Draw
23%
Saint-Germain win
58%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.07 – 2.01
Total 3.07
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 81% forecast because PSG's 2.00 xG versus Brest's 1.07 creates a 0.94-goal edge that typically produces multiple scores."