FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Friday, 28 August 2026
Lille 2–2 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain or draw at 71%. Bawler had Lille at 29%, the draw at 26% and Paris Saint-Germain at 44%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lille win
29%
Draw
26%
Result
Paris Saint-Germain win
44%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.