What we expect
In plain English
AS Monaco are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won five of their last six, and the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Toulouse. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
AS Monaco or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
Bawler's model rates this match: AS Monaco are favoured (50% win probability vs 26% for Toulouse, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is AS Monaco 1-1 Toulouse (11.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.08.
How does Bawler predict AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives AS Monaco 50%, the draw 24% and Toulouse 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.82 and away expected goals 1.26.
Over or under 2.5 goals in AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.08. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).