FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
AS Monaco 4–1 Gornik ZabrzeMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Monaco to win at 69%. Bawler had AS Monaco at 69%, the draw at 19% and Gornik Zabrze at 12%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Monaco win
69%
Result
Draw
19%
Gornik Zabrze win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.9
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AS Monaco to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"AS Monaco's home win is the high-confidence call, backed by a 1.43 expected-goals advantage and 69% win probability against a visiting side managing just 0.89 xG."