FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Stade Rennais 2–2 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Stade Rennais at 25%, draw at 23%, Paris Saint-Germain at 52%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Paris Saint-Germain to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rennais win
25%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
Saint-Germain win
52%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.96
Total 3.26
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost