FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Stade Rennais 2–2 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain or draw at 75%. Bawler had Stade Rennais at 25%, the draw at 23% and Paris Saint-Germain at 52%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Stade Rennais win
25%
Draw
23%
Result
Paris Saint-Germain win
52%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.0
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.