FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Marseille at 25%, draw at 23%, Paris Saint-Germain at 52%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Paris Saint-Germain.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Marseille win
25%
Draw
23%
Saint-Germain win
52%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.96
Total 3.26
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 83%, as PSG's 1.87 xG edge and superior attacking threat—led by Dembélé's creative wing play—should crack Marseille's 1.33 xG despite Greenwood's individual threat."