FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 30 August 2026
AS Monaco 2–0 MarseilleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AS Monaco at 43%, draw at 24%, Marseille at 32%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward AS Monaco.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Monaco win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Marseille win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.78 – 1.52
Total 3.29
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost