FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Le Havre AC 0–1 AS MonacoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Le Havre AC at 33%, draw at 26%, AS Monaco at 41%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward AS Monaco.
> Pre-match probability vs result
AC win
33%
Draw
26%
Monaco win
41%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.56
Total 2.92
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost