FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Le Havre AC 0–1 AS MonacoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Monaco or draw at 67%. Bawler had Le Havre AC at 33%, the draw at 26% and AS Monaco at 41%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Le Havre AC win
33%
Draw
26%
AS Monaco win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.