What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 69%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
NEC Nijmegen are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Levski Sofia. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
NEC Nijmegen or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Bawler's model rates this match: NEC Nijmegen are favoured (47% win probability vs 27% for Levski Sofia, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia (12.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.80.
How does Bawler predict NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives NEC Nijmegen 47%, the draw 26% and Levski Sofia 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.63 and away expected goals 1.17.
Over or under 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.80. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).