FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 20 September 2026
NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Go Ahead EaglesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had NEC Nijmegen at 51%, draw at 22%, Go Ahead Eagles at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was NEC Nijmegen to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nijmegen win
51%
Draw
22%
Actual ✓
Eagles win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.06 – 1.44
Total 3.50
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"NEC Nijmegen's home win forecast (62%) rests on a decisive 1.10 xG advantage, with the hosts generating 2.31 expected goals to Eagles' 1.21."