FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 1–1 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam or draw at 79%. Bawler had Ajax Amsterdam at 57%, the draw at 21% and NEC Nijmegen at 22%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
57%
Draw
21%
Result
NEC Nijmegen win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.3
Total 3.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Outside shot
NEC Nijmegen to win
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.