FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 25 October 2026
NEC Nijmegen 2–2 FC GroningenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was NEC Nijmegen or draw at 69%. Bawler had NEC Nijmegen at 46%, the draw at 23% and FC Groningen at 31%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
NEC Nijmegen win
46%
Draw
23%
Result
FC Groningen win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.6
Total 3.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
NEC Nijmegen or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands 87% conviction because NEC's 1.98 expected goals and Groningen's 1.58 combine for a 3.57 xG total that favors an attacking match."