FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Levski Sofia 0–1 RB SalzburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 17 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Levski Sofia at 34%, draw at 25%, RB Salzburg at 41%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward RB Salzburg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sofia win
34%
Draw
25%
Salzburg win
41%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.47 – 1.64
Total 3.11
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82% because combined expected goals of 3.11 and a narrow 0.17 xG gap suggest both sides will create genuine chances in Sofia."