FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski SofiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was NEC Nijmegen or draw at 74%. Bawler had NEC Nijmegen at 48%, the draw at 26% and Levski Sofia at 26%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
NEC Nijmegen win
48%
Draw
26%
Result
Levski Sofia win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.