Napoli vs Bologna prediction — Serie A · Sun 13 Sept · 17:00 UK

Serie A · Sun 13 Sept · 17:00 UK
Napoli 45Draw 28Bologna 27
Our call before kickoff
73%
Napoli or draw
Landed
2.6
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
71%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
51%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
47%

How it finished

Napoli beat Bologna 1–0. Bawler's model had Napoli in front at 45% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals; only 1 was scored. Napoli had 15 shots (3 on target) to Bologna's 5 (2), with 58% of the ball against 43%.

NapoliFull-time statsBologna
58%Possession43%
15Shots5
3Shots on target2
10Corners0
2Saves3
15Fouls10
2Offsides3
0Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callNapoli or draw 73%Napoli won (45% called)
Total goals2.61
Both teams to score51%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 72%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

NapoliBologna
1.5
Goals+0.4
1.1
12.5
Shots+0.1
12.3
4.4
On target+0.4
4.0
5.2
Corners+1.7
3.5
NapoliBologna
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.4
5.6
Shots+0.5
6.1
1.9
On target+0.1
2.0
2.4
Corners+0.8
1.6
NapoliBologna
1.0
Goals+0.3
0.7
6.9
Shots+0.7
6.2
2.5
On target+0.5
2.0
2.7
Corners+0.9
1.8

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Napoli to score77%
Under 3.5 goals74%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Bologna to score66%

First half — what we expected

Napoli
50%
to score before half-time
Bologna
41%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%

NapoliBologna
5.61st-half shots6.1
1.91st-half shots on target2.0
2.41st-half corners1.6

First-half chances

60%Chance of 5+ shots67%
34%Chance of 7+ shots41%
81%Chance of 1+ shots on target82%
30%Chance of 3+ shots on target32%
87%Chance of 1+ corners74%
42%Chance of 3+ corners23%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Napoli5.66.9
Shots · Bologna6.16.2
Shots on target · Napoli1.92.5
Shots on target · Bologna2.02.0
Corners · Napoli2.42.7
Corners · Bologna1.61.8
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Napoli 2 · Draws 1 · Bologna 2
Bologna in their league tableLower half

Head to head

May 2026Napoli 2–3 Bologna
Dec 2025Napoli 2–0 Bologna
Nov 2025Bologna 2–0 Napoli
Apr 2025Bologna 1–1 Napoli
Aug 2024Napoli 3–0 Bologna
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Napoli vs Bologna?

Napoli beat Bologna 1–0. Bawler's model had Napoli in front at 45% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals; only 1 was scored. Napoli had 15 shots (3 on target) to Bologna's 5 (2), with 58% of the ball against 43%.

What was the final score in Napoli vs Bologna?

Napoli 1–0 Bologna, played on 13 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Napoli 45%, the draw 28% and Bologna 27%.

What were the stats in Napoli vs Bologna?

Full-time: Possession 58%–43%, Shots 15–5, Shots on target 3–2, Corners 10–0, Saves 2–3, Fouls 15–10, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Napoli vs Bologna?

No. It finished 1–0, so Bologna failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Napoli vs Bologna right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Napoli or draw 73%, it finished Napoli won (45% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 72%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Napoli form →Bologna form →