FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Bologna 1–1 TorinoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Bologna at 50%, draw at 26%, Torino at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Bologna to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bologna win
50%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Torino win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.07
Total 2.73
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 76%, built on Bologna's 0.56 xG advantage and Orsolini's creation threat from the wing against a Torino side generating just 1.09 expected goals."