FT · ITALY: Serie A · Monday, 24 August 2026
Bologna 0–1 LazioMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 24 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bologna or draw at 72%. Bawler had Bologna at 44%, the draw at 28% and Lazio at 28%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bologna win
44%
Draw
28%
Lazio win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bologna or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.