FT · ITALY: Serie A · Monday, 24 August 2026
Bologna 0–1 LazioMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 24 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Bologna at 44%, draw at 28%, Lazio at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Bologna to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bologna win
44%
Draw
28%
Lazio win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.43 – 1.10
Total 2.53
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won