FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Lecce 1–2 BolognaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bologna or draw at 75%. Bawler had Lecce at 25%, the draw at 27% and Bologna at 48%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lecce win
25%
Draw
27%
Bologna win
48%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.5
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Bologna or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.