FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Bologna 2–2 SassuoloMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Bologna at 50%, draw at 26%, Sassuolo at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Bologna to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bologna win
50%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Sassuolo win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.64 – 1.07
Total 2.71
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Bologna's hunt for European football at home against a Sassuolo side with nothing to chase creates asymmetric pressure that, combined with their 0.62 xG advantage, points toward Over 1.5 Goals at 76% confidence."